EC Maritime Security · Indo-Pacific

Maritime Security · Indo-Pacific Defense Analysis

Ethan Connell

I use open-source intelligence, geospatial analysis, and Chinese-language sources to track maritime military activity and coercive signaling across the Indo-Pacific. Assistant Director and Head of Analysis & Monitoring at Taiwan Security Monitor.

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I.

About

I am a maritime security analyst focused on mine warfare, the U.S. Navy, the Republic of China Navy, the People's Liberation Army Navy, undersea infrastructure, and Chinese coercive activity around Taiwan. My work combines OSINT, GEOINT, satellite imagery, analysis of Chinese-language sources, and data visualization to track military activity and strategic signaling across the Indo-Pacific.

At Taiwan Security Monitor, I lead the Analysis & Monitoring team, which operates the PLA Activity Center, PRC Narrative Center, Taiwan Strait Transit Tracker, and related live trackers. My analysis has been featured or quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Diplomat, RUSI, the Taipei Times, Newsweek, and U.S. congressional reporting.

II.

Experience

  1. Assistant Director · Head of Analysis & Monitoring

    Taiwan Security Monitor · George Mason University

    — Present · Fairfax, VA

    • Direct TSM's Analysis & Monitoring team, operating the open-source surface/sub-surface fleet tracker, the Taiwan Strait Transit Tracker, and the Taiwan Affairs Office Statement Repository.
    • Lead research on maritime security and the PRC state-media organs that shape narratives around Taiwan.
    • Produced analysis featured in the Wall Street Journal, The Diplomat, the Center for Maritime Strategy, and the Financial Times.

  2. Research Lead · Geospatial Intelligence & Data Visualization

    Taiwan Security Monitor · George Mason University

    —

    • Supervised a 20-person research team — delegated projects, managed schedules, and directed the GEOINT and Visualization/Imagery teams building a detailed map and database of East Asian military and critical civilian infrastructure.
    • Collected and analyzed daily satellite imagery of PLA naval and strategic-air facilities to assess risk and mobilization; developed predictive indicators ahead of Joint Sword 2024B and Strait Thunder 2025.
    • Built data visualizations in QGIS and ArcGIS for public release — featured in the Wall Street Journal, RUSI, Newsweek, and TaiwanPlus News.
    • Translated and published the first English translation of Taiwan's 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review, plus regular translations of PRC civilian and military statements.
    • Directed a real-time database of naval surface, sub-surface, and unmanned-platform readiness, published in The Diplomat and the Center for Maritime Strategy and quoted in the Financial Times.
    • Regularly engaged with and briefed the intelligence community on TSM's work.
III.

Publications

Commentary & analysis · in date order
  1. 2026Jun 20

    If Beijing radios, say you are busy

    Taipei Times

    • Taiwan
    • Gray Zone
    • Maritime Security
  2. 2026May 28

    If the lights are off, Taiwan loses

    Taipei Times

    • Taiwan
    • Critical Infrastructure
    • Resilience
  3. 2026May 22

    Japan's Frigate Diplomacy — and what it could mean for Taiwan

    The Diplomat

    • Japan
    • Taiwan Strait
    • Naval Diplomacy
  4. 2026Apr 24

    Scrap the submarine daydream

    Taipei Times

    • Taiwan
    • Submarines
    • Force Structure
  5. 2026Apr 22

    Taiwan's mine-warfare gap: the distance between concept and capability

    The Monitor · Taiwan Security Monitor

    • Mine Warfare
    • Taiwan Defense
    • Maritime Security
  6. 2026Mar 18

    From 16 aircraft to surrounded: fear, virality, and the misinformation cascade in ADIZ discourse

    The Monitor · Taiwan Security Monitor

    • ADIZ
    • PRC Narratives
    • Misinformation
  7. 2026Mar 7

    All quiet in the Taiwan Strait? Explaining the recent drop in PLA aircraft activity

    The Monitor · Taiwan Security Monitor

    • PLA Activity
    • Taiwan Strait
    • Air Operations
  8. 2026Jan 20

    Failure to launch: how political backpedaling could hand China the carrier edge

    Center for Maritime Strategy

    • Aircraft Carriers
    • US Navy
    • China
  9. 2026Jan 5

    Creeping closer: timeline and analysis of the Justice Mission-2025 joint exercise

    The Monitor · Taiwan Security Monitor

    • PLA Exercises
    • Coercive Signaling
    • Maritime Security
  10. 2025May 20

    Don't sweep minesweepers under the rug: America's critical naval vulnerability

    Center for Maritime Strategy

    • Mine Warfare
    • US Navy
    • Force Structure
  11. 2025Apr 23

    How the Philippines can counter China's South China Sea aggression

    The Diplomat

    • Philippines
    • South China Sea
    • Maritime Coercion
IV.

In the Press

Quoted & cited · reverse chronological
  1. 2026Jun 10

    Domino Theory Quoted

    China Concludes ‘Special Maritime Law Enforcement Operation’ Near Taiwan

    On Beijing’s attempt to “normalize Chinese administrative control over international shipping” in waters where “China has no recognized enforcement authority.”

    • Taiwan
    • Maritime Law Enforcement
    • PRC Coercion
  2. 2026Mar 23

    Navy Times Quoted

    The US has counter-mine ships homeported in the Middle East. Are they effective?

    On the fragility of the Navy’s LCS mine-countermeasure package — “when everything needs to be perfect in order for it to work … that is a really bad thing.”

    • US Navy
    • Mine Warfare
    • Strait of Hormuz
  3. 2026Mar 20

    The Christian Science Monitor Quoted

    US Navy lags in minesweeping, despite years of warnings and big defense budgets

    On the pace of clearing a mined chokepoint — “a very, very slow, painstaking business.”

    • US Navy
    • Mine Warfare
    • Readiness
  4. 2026Mar 17

    BFMTV Cited

    L’étrange décision américaine : les États-Unis replient leurs navires démineurs en Malaisie

    French coverage citing his Financial Times analysis of why the U.S. pulled its Gulf minesweepers 6,500 km from the Strait of Hormuz.

    • Mine Warfare
    • Strait of Hormuz
    • US Navy
  5. 2026Mar 16

    Financial Times Quoted

    US says two of its three Gulf-based minesweepers are in Malaysia

    On why two mine-countermeasure ships turned up 4,000 miles from the Gulf — the littoral combat ships “aren’t meant to be the tip of the spear.”

    • US Navy
    • Mine Warfare
    • Strait of Hormuz
  6. 2025Aug 2

    Domino Theory Quoted

    Where Did Taiwan’s Han Kuang Exercises Take Place?

    Mapping the exercise and reading Taiwan’s defense-in-depth doctrine — “you are willing to give up ground for the bigger picture … then counter-attack in a smart way.”

    • Taiwan
    • Han Kuang
    • Defense in Depth
  7. 2025Jun 23

    Financial Times Quoted

    Military briefing: will Iran start a new ‘tanker war’?

    “We just don’t have the mine-sweeping capability to deal with a full-on mined Strait of Hormuz.”

    • Iran
    • Strait of Hormuz
    • Mine Warfare
V.

Awards

Fellowships & awards

2026

DACOR Bacon House Foundation Fellow

For the Advanced Study of Foreign Affairs · Fellowship

2026

Future of the Intelligence Community Award

Intelligence and National Security Alliance

2025

Howard P. Hart Memorial Scholar

Scholarship

VI.

Teaching

Graduate teaching assistant
  • Graduate TAGovernment and Politics of Asia
  • Graduate TARevolutions in International Politics
  • Graduate TAInternational Security
  • Guest LecturerGeorge Mason University
  • Guest LecturerCanadian Army Command and Staff College